IMF

The government increased petrol prices by Rs13.18 per litre to Rs310.71 and diesel by Rs13.80 to Rs323.30, effective July 11. The hikes follow a rise from Rs281 for diesel and Rs266 for petrol after the US-Iran war began on February 28, with diesel peaking at Rs520.35 and petrol at Rs458.41 in April. IMF conditions led to a doubled climate support levy of Rs5 per litre from July 1, alongside reduced petroleum levies.

Africa faces potential economic and political instability from renewed US-Iran tensions, with sub-Saharan oil-importing nations at risk. The IMF warns of disrupted energy and fertilizer markets exacerbating food insecurity, while Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote's proposed $17 billion refinery in Kenya aims to reduce regional reliance on imported petroleum.

The Pakistani budget provides tax relief for high-income salaried employees earning over Rs200,000 monthly but overlooks the majority of households earning less than Rs100,000. The Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) allocates Rs838 billion, increasing quarterly payouts to Rs18,000 for 10 million low-income families, while power sector subsidies and education/health allocations remain insufficient for broader economic needs.

World Bank and IMF loans are influencing policymaking in Africa as governments evaluate the trade-offs of concessional financing amid rising debt pressures.

The US military conducted strikes on Iran for a second day, with explosions reported in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Bushehr province. Donald Trump accused Iran of 'behaving very badly' after attacks on cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to the most extensive exchange of fire since an interim ceasefire. US stock markets fell, Brent crude prices rose over 5%, and the IMF lowered its global growth forecast to 3%.

The IMF resumed dealings with Venezuela on April 16, guided by members holding a majority of voting power. Venezuela holds $4.9bn in reserve tranche and drawing rights, with Caracas announcing a $200m initial draw for reconstruction. Britain applied a different rule in the process.

The article discusses the expansion of the Federal Board of Revenue's (FBR) coercive and surveillance powers in Pakistan, particularly through a new production monitoring system. It critiques the reliance on enhanced enforcement and audit measures for revenue generation, arguing that such approaches are insufficient and that the government has failed to deliver meaningful tax policy reforms.

Regional states like Pakistan and Türkiye are positioning to benefit from new economic opportunities as US-Iran negotiations progress. Pakistan aims to leverage macroeconomic stability and reforms to achieve investment-led growth while avoiding a rentier-state model. Regional partnerships with Iran, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia are highlighted as immediate economic opportunities.

The IMF has reduced its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3 percent, citing the energy shock from the Iran war, though AI demand is helping to offset some of the negative impacts.

The IMF reduced its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% due to high energy prices from the Iran conflict, which is slowing economic growth and raising inflation. The fund noted AI demand helped avoid a sharper downturn and expects growth to rebound in 2027, while the US Federal Reserve remains divided over interest rate adjustments amid uncertainty about prolonged energy price impacts.

The IMF has reduced its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% due to uncertainty from the war in Iran, while projecting a rebound in 2027. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez addresses threats from Donald Trump regarding US trade cuts, and France's power system faces strain from a heatwave.

The collapse of the Iran ceasefire and tanker strikes near Hormuz caused a spike in oil prices and cut IMF growth projections to 3%. However, Latin America experienced a windfall from these developments.

The IMF has reduced its global growth forecast to 3.0%, citing risks from a potential renewed Middle East conflict. This could lead to increased commodity price volatility, disrupted supply chains, higher prices, and worsened financial conditions.

The IMF warns that the war in the Middle East is increasing global inflation. The IMF now projects headline inflation to reach 4.7% this year, up from 4.1% in 2025, with AI investment helping to mitigate the impact.

The IMF reduced its 2026 global growth projection, citing uncertainty and risks from renewed fighting in the Middle East. Petya Koeva Brooks, an IMF deputy director, highlighted the impact of recent developments on the economic outlook.

The IMF warns that the U.S.-Iran conflict will cause prolonged high inflation through 2027, despite not initially harming economies as much as feared.

The IMF has raised its inflation projections for global price growth. Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire with Iran is 'over'.

The IMF has appointed Silvana Tenreyro as its next chief economist. She is a former Bank of England policymaker and will be the second woman to hold the position.

Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan chief Hafiz Naeemur Rehman announced nationwide protests against the government's 'extortionary' petroleum levy, citing high taxes on petrol and diesel, misuse of climate support levy funds, and rising energy prices. The protests are scheduled for Friday, July 10, with demands for lower petrol prices and government action on energy infrastructure and regional disputes.

Pakistan's unified agriculture income tax regime collected only Rs5.62bn, less than 2% of declared agricultural income, highlighting systemic failures due to political resistance and institutional weaknesses. Provincial governments, influenced by landed elites, failed to enforce the tax effectively despite IMF-backed reforms.

The government reduced petrol and diesel prices by Rs1.97 per litre, effective immediately until July 10, reflecting lower global prices. Diesel prices peaked at Rs520.35 on April 3, while petrol reached Rs458.41. Tax adjustments, including a doubled climate support levy, influenced the price cuts.

The IMF's Tobias Adrian stated that policy choices will determine whether tokenization strengthens or fragments the financial system. He highlighted that risks could shift from banks to market infrastructure providers and smart contracts as tokenization expands.

The IMF states that tokenization may accelerate financial processes but could also increase vulnerability to shocks. The organization highlights both potential benefits and risks associated with tokenization in finance.

The IMF is joining efforts to address 'opaque' debt in Nigeria, targeting total return swaps that threaten transparency in emerging market sovereign debt.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has abolished the Sohni Dharti Remittance Programme (SDRP) and Telegraphic Transfer Charges Incentive Scheme (TTCIS), effective July 1, 2026, following IMF scrutiny. The incentives, which cost up to Rs120bn annually, were discontinued to address concerns over non-performance-linked financial allocations. Banks will continue offering free remittance transfers to users despite the scheme’s termination.

Tunisia has rejected an IMF program and plans to raise nearly 2 billion euros in 2026 through markets, relying on its central bank to manage debt as bills mature.

Senegalese lawmakers voted to limit presidential powers, proposing reforms to empower parliament and ban the president from leading a political party or coalition. The move follows political tensions after Speaker Ousmane Sonko was dismissed as prime minister by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, amid a national debt crisis and IMF lending suspension.

Egypt is nearing a $1.6 billion IMF payout with an initial deal. Talks are planned in Cairo, attended by the CIA chief, aimed at a truce in the Gaza Strip.

The EU ETS Directive revision is critical for balancing decarbonization with industrial competitiveness as Europe faces rising energy costs and a growing global competitiveness gap. Higher electricity prices in the EU, driven by ETS costs, threaten industries like chemicals, with closures and job losses already reported.

IMF chief economist warns that 'tit-for-tat' trade warfare threatens the global economy, with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stating such tactics will be self-defeating. Gourinchas, who is leaving the fund, highlights risks from attempts to gain small advantages through trade conflicts.

The government secured parliamentary approval for the FY27 budget, which aligns with IMF requirements but lacks meaningful structural reforms. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb emphasized growth potential under stable energy prices, though the budget perpetuates reliance on consumption, remittances, and real estate, with minimal progress on tax system improvements or export-led growth strategies.

Ethiopia's economy is among Africa's fastest-growing and has received IMF backing, but the country remains in default after bondholder talks collapsed in May 2026.

Ecuador must reopen its frozen mining cadastre by end-June under an IMF deadline, which could enable progress on stalled copper and gold projects. The IMF's involvement highlights the urgency of the decision.

The IMF approved Ukraine’s first program review amid Russian strikes on Kyiv. The IMF softened tax conditions after only one of four required bills passed parliament, with a key test in September over the 2027 financing gap.

Senegal's political crisis has deepened as President Faye dismissed Prime Minister Sonko and dissolved the government amid a frozen IMF programme.

The IMF has warned that Costa Rica's public health system reserves may deplete by 2029, leading to increased state financial burden. This alerts to potential funding shortages in the country's renowned healthcare system.

Senegal’s government is open to debt restructuring after discovering billions in undisclosed debt from the previous leadership, which pushed its debt to over 130% of GDP. Political tensions between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and former Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko over debt resolution led to a crisis, but Sonko has softened his opposition. The IMF acknowledged progress in reducing the deficit but highlighted risks from the Iran war.

El Niño is expected to cause droughts in Africa, threatening cocoa and coffee crops in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which supply over half the world’s cocoa. The droughts could reduce outputs, drive up global prices, and harm farmers who do not benefit from government-fixed prices. The IMF’s Africa chief announced plans to support nations affected by conflict-induced shocks.

Venezuela's GDP has fallen from $370 billion in 2012 to $100 billion, with a $240 billion debt pile expected to be revealed. The US-imposed regime change and lifted sanctions may enable a historic debt restructuring, surpassing Greece's 2012 default and involving numerous creditors without IMF participation.

The state budget is criticized for lacking strategic vision, favoring the wealthy, and deferring necessary reforms. It reduces provincial funding, increases indirect taxes burdening the poor, and maintains a low tax-to-GDP ratio, failing fiscal equity and expansion goals.