Selic

Brazil's Copom is expected to reduce the Selic benchmark rate from 14.25% to 14.00% due to cooling inflation and market expectations of a less aggressive easing path than desired by Lula.

Brazil's B3 is set to open with attention on the Selic rate expectations and new fiscal data. The article highlights market focus on monetary policy and fiscal developments.

Brazil's B3 is expected to open with a dovish tilt amid fresh inflation data reinforcing expectations for another Selic rate cut. The article was first published on The Rio Times.

The S&P 500 declined to 7,413.18, described as a market rotation rather than panic. The IMF projects 2026 inflation at 4.7%, supporting the Fed and dollar stability, which impacts Brazil's real, Selic interest rate, and capital flows.

Wall Street rallied due to a chip sector rebound, but high oil prices and a strong dollar are creating economic pressures. Brazil's elevated Selic rate is supporting the real, while positive Asian technology data has improved market sentiment.

B3's Copom options indicate a 75.5% probability of a 0.25-point Selic rate cut in August, marking a shift from June's expectation of a hold. The article notes this change in market expectations for Brazil's central bank policy.

The Ibovespa's open is influenced by June IPCA data and Copom's August decision, with analysis focusing on Selic rate odds, USD/BRL exchange rate levels, and corporate news. The article was first published on The Rio Times.

Brazil’s Focus survey reduced its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.16 percent from 5.30 percent, reversing weeks of rising projections. The year-end Selic rate forecast remained unchanged at 14 percent, while a soft June inflation reading of 0.16 percent influenced the shift.

Brazil's pre-market setup shows the Ibovespa near 170,700 and the real at 5.15 as markets anticipate the June IPCA inflation data and shifting expectations for an August Selic rate cut. The article highlights key financial indicators and upcoming economic announcements.

Brazil's Ibovespa stock index rose to 174,070 points and the real strengthened to 5.1686 per dollar as weak factory data increased expectations for a Selic rate cut.

Brazil's Ibovespa stock index closed flat at 168,277.55 on June 18 after an initial rise from the Selic rate cut to 14.25% was offset by global market caution and profit-taking. The rate reduction initially boosted shares but failed to sustain gains amid international uncertainty.

The June 8 Focus survey raised the median 2026 Selic rate forecast to 13.5%, the first increase after a period of stability. The 2027 forecast also rose to 11.5%, while 2028 and 2029 forecasts remained at 10.00%. The 2026 IPCA inflation estimate increased from 5.09% to an unspecified higher value.

The Ibovespa fell 0.21% to 168,669 as a strong dollar and diminishing expectations of Selic rate cuts pressured Brazilian stocks, with the real dropping below 5.19.

Brazilian economists have raised their forecasts for the Selic interest rate in 2026 and 2027 due to a surge in oil prices. The adjustment reflects concerns about inflationary pressures linked to the energy market.