Torsten Slok
Coverage of Torsten Slok in the Nexus archive.
- Top economist warns that the AI math doesn’t make sense: ‘Profits are currently being funded by investors rather than earned from customers’
Economist Torsten Slok warns that AI profits are currently funded by investors rather than earned from customers, citing a lopsided profit margin structure within the value chain. While silicon and equipment maintain high margins (41%), models and applications report negative operating margins (-59%). Slok warned that if financing slows, this disparity threatens the stability of the expanding industry.
- Wall Street’s bulls are starting to admit the earnings bubble is real — and the 60/40 portfolio may be the first casualty
Wall Street analysts from Goldman Sachs and Apollo acknowledge potential issues in the technology sector's earnings and the declining effectiveness of the 60/40 investment portfolio. The 60/40 model, long considered a market safeguard, is criticized for failing amid rising government debt and shifts in tech dominance, particularly as AI-driven growth slows.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh talks a big game, but this market indicator will tell you if Wall Street trusts him after he caused a ‘credibility shock’
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's failure to signal commitment to fighting inflation has caused a 'credibility shock,' with market reactions like the bond yield curve indicating skepticism. Economists suggest a potential September rate hike to restore trust, as Warsh's ambiguous statements on inflation tools and forward guidance rattled markets.
- Nearly a third of workers admit to sabotaging their company’s AI—and smaller paychecks may explain why
A study by Apollo Global Management suggests AI adoption is causing wage compression rather than job losses, with workers resisting AI due to fears of reduced pay. Economist Torsten Slok shifted his analysis from predicting AI-driven job creation to highlighting slowed wage growth in AI-exposed occupations.
- Despite nearing their 60s, nearly four in 10 Americans heading towards the end of their careers don’t even have a retirement account
Nearly 40% of Americans aged 55-65 lack retirement accounts, with similar rates among younger age groups. Financial pressures lead many to withdraw funds early, and a significant portion of retirees are struggling financially.
- It's one choke point after another in the global economy
The article discusses 'choke points' in the global economy, highlighting the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait as critical bottlenecks in oil traffic due to Houthi militant attacks and increased Saudi oil rerouting. It also links choke points to AI supply chain constraints and broader economic interdependence fraying under geopolitical competition.
- The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it’s still worse somehow
The U.S. national debt of $39 trillion is lower than Japan's 204% and Singapore's 172% debt-to-GDP ratios but higher in absolute terms than China's $18.7 trillion. Economists warn the U.S. is accumulating debt at $7 billion per day, reducing its ability to respond to recessions, while Japan's debt is structurally different due to domestic ownership and high household savings.
- Apollo’s Slok Warns of Dollar’s Vulnerability to an AI Pullback
Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Management, warned that the US dollar could be vulnerable to a pullback in artificial intelligence investments. The warning was made during a Market Forum event in New York.
- AI’s productivity gains are years away, but if it doesn’t deliver, it could make unsustainable debt levels even worse, Deutsche Bank economist says
Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid states AI's productivity gains are years away, with current data showing no significant economic impact. If AI fails to deliver, it could exacerbate global debt issues. Apollo's Torsten Slok warns of potential market repricing if AI investments underperform.
- Top economist says AI just hasn’t delivered on the productivity hype—and it means a ‘painful repricing’ of markets is very possible
Top economist Torsten Slok warns that AI has not yet delivered widespread productivity gains beyond tech companies, creating a risk of market repricing if returns on AI investments fail to materialize. He highlights regulatory and integration challenges slowing AI adoption in most sectors, with data showing profit margins for non-tech firms lagging behind tech giants like the Magnificent Seven.
- Slok Says ECB Hike in September Is Possible Despite Energy Drop
Torsten Slok suggests the European Central Bank (ECB) may raise interest rates in September despite a drop in energy prices.
- The most reassuring argument about AI and jobs quietly explains why Gen Z can’t get one
Wolters Kluwer, a Dutch software company, argues AI won't eliminate jobs due to the 'lump of labor fallacy' and Jevons Paradox, explaining AI shifts tasks rather than replaces jobs. Legal teams now seek AI-trained junior professionals to validate AI outputs and manage workflows, as efficiency gains increase client expectations rather than reduce demand for services.
- Gen Z graduates are blaming AI for their unemployment woes when they should be looking somewhere else
Gen Z graduates are blaming AI for their unemployment, but economist Torsten Slok argues factors like Fed tightening, trade-war uncertainty, and slowing immigration are more significant. Unemployment for recent graduates remains at 5.6%, higher than the 4.2% rate for all workers, with the gap emerging before ChatGPT's release. Companies' mixed messaging on AI is fueling Gen Z's job insecurity.
- Tokens are getting cheaper, but companies are spending even more on AI as a result, top economist warns
The cost of AI tokens has dropped over 90% since 2023, but corporate spending on large language models has doubled, driven by increased usage despite lower unit costs. Economists warn this reflects Jevons paradox, where efficiency gains lead to higher overall consumption, as companies automate more workflows and deploy AI extensively.