U.S. arms sales

Secretary General Rutte is expected to publicly praise Trump for rising European defense spending, but Europeans privately doubt US commitment to Article 5, prompting a push for defense autonomy. Ukraine's resilience and US arms sales serve as temporary solutions, while Turkey's military-industrial capacity and Trump-Erdoğan ties position it as a key defense partner.

Taiwan's defense minister expressed cautious optimism about U.S. weapons sales amid delays linked to Iran conflict preparations. U.S. military officials suggested the deal was paused to preserve ammunition, while Trump's potential use of arms sales as leverage with China complicates the situation. A senior U.S. official clarified that long-term sales are unrelated to the Iran war.

Following Trump's summit with Xi Jinping, the critical test ahead involves whether U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will maintain credible deterrence under strategic ambiguity. The outcome will reveal how far China is willing to go in enforcing its red lines regarding Taiwan.