War on the Rocks

The article is an interview with Brandon Tseng, co-founder and president of Shield AI, discussing the company's core belief that the AI pilot is more crucial than the airframe. Tseng was asked about his decade experience building autonomy for the Pentagon. His company develops Hivemind autonomy software, V-BAT and X-BAT aircraft, and Aechelon synthetic reality simulation technologies.

China has upgraded its military capabilities by modifying ferries for amphibious armored vehicles, expanding missile forces, and hardening air bases to deter U.S. intervention. However, some analyses contradict these facts, arguing that concerns about China's military are overstated and that an invasion of Taiwan remains out of reach for the People’s Liberation Army.

Captain Chirag made comments about worry while operating a commercial cargo vessel in the Red Sea following the October 7, 2023 attacks in the Middle East. These sentiments could relate to military experiences, such as those involving crew members of USS Carney or sailors assigned to Carrier Strike Group Three who are engaging Houthi threats.

Military analysts are studying how war's material nature is changing in Ukraine, noting that technologies like unmanned systems and on-board AI are transforming conflict tactics. These tools have captured Russian infantry units and battered ships, enabling autonomous strikes deep into enemy areas. This technological shift democratizes military capability, allowing a country to resist an invader much larger than itself.

The People’s Liberation Army Daily consistently asserts that while AI can enhance command capabilities by processing sensor data and drafting options, ultimate authority and responsibility must remain with human commanders. The official newspaper of China’s Central Military Commission maintains that AI cannot resolve the allocation of command authority because only a human commander holds this capacity.

The Iran war and the Ukraine war are starting to show a similar political logic after failures to achieve quick results. Although operationally different, both conflicts saw a larger power fail to produce a decisive outcome using military force. Consequently, targeted states adapted while outside supporters helped keep both conflicts ongoing.

In early 1963, the United States and the Soviet Union differed on a comprehensive nuclear test ban, with Nikita Khrushchev proposing three annual inspections while Washington asked for seven. The difference was significant because seismology could not always distinguish an underground test from an earthquake. Ultimately, the number chosen represented a political judgment about how much residual uncertainty its government should accept.

Operation Epic Fury demonstrated that AI is central to American warfighting, with Central Command using Claude through Palantir’s Maven Smart System platform to generate and prioritize roughly 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours. This pace exceeded the opening phase of the 2003 Iraq invasion, reaching 13,000 total strikes over 38 days. The article raises concern about whether the department can properly evaluate deployed AI technology.

On June 26, 2026, the Civil Police of Rio de Janeiro raided a clandestine workshop in Rio das Pedras. Investigators discovered that the group was using a seized 3D printer to produce pistol frames and structural rifle parts from polymer, which were subsequently completed with metal components. The operation’s main target was described by police as an international arms and ammunition trafficker.

The article notes that the United States will soon face two historical milestones: the 25-year anniversary of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and the five-year anniversary of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. While the 9/11 anniversary is expected to receive some remembrance, the U.S. government is likely to ignore the milestone concerning the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Since 1945, political decisions have reportedly reduced Britain’s ability to maintain a globally relevant Royal Navy fleet. These efforts include the failed Suez expedition in 1956, the retreat from “East of Suez” in 1966, and subsequent reviews such as the Nott Review (1981), the Strategic Defence Review (1998), and the 2010 review.

The article details how nuclear power has propelled American defense services for over 70 years, supporting assets like attack submarines and ballistic missiles. This piece is part of a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime, running to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary.

Historically, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, the U.S. government was the primary patron of American science, funding nearly two-thirds of research and development, largely for defense. While federal dollars previously drove technological advancement, that arrangement has now inverted. Today, industry funds roughly three-quarters of U.S. research and development, with Washington's share being less than a fifth.

Arms control agreements have collapsed, leading to intensified geopolitical competition and nuclear proliferation among nine countries. Key powers are expanding their arsenals, with China projecting a significant increase in warheads by 2035, while Russia develops exotic systems like hypersonic glide vehicles and underwater drones. The potential integration of Artificial Intelligence raises concerns about making nuclear threats more effective.

During a late June lecture at an Israeli military's officer training school, Ofer Winter told future officers that "there are no uninvolved civilians in Gaza." He also accused two former chiefs of staff of politically blocking his career. While regulations prohibit political activity and the Israeli military called the episode a failure, cadets noted it was part of a pattern of guest speakers.

The article highlights the lack of justice and accountability in Haiti following the assassinations of Monferrier Dorval, Diego Charles, Antoinette Duclaire, and President Jovenel Moïse. It critiques international reporting and stabilization efforts for prioritizing measurable outputs like workshops and decrees over meaningful outcomes that reflect real societal change.

Under Secretary of Defense Michael P. Duffey discusses the Pentagon’s acquisition transformation, covering topics like munitions agreements, industry investments, portfolio acquisition shifts, and allied coproduction. The conversation is featured in an article on War on the Rocks.

The article discusses the significance of Egypt's opinion on Ukraine and introduces 'The Ukraine Compass,' a weekly digest offering diverse Ukrainian perspectives beyond military updates. It highlights how Ukrainian media provides insights into domestic politics, daily life, and public debates during the war.

In February 2026, the United States and Israel initiated a war against Iran in the Middle East, leading to ongoing conflict, a fragile ceasefire, and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Open hostilities resumed in July 2026, while the Houthis in Yemen have threatened Saudi shipping through Bab al-Mandab. A webinar by War on the Rocks and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) discusses the implications for free navigation.

The article introduces a new series on battles with negligible strategic or political impact, focusing on the Battle of Tours (or Poitiers) as an example. It highlights how the battle's significance is debated over time, despite being structurally irrelevant to broader conflicts.

The article discusses the challenges of observing successful cyber deterrence, as it often prevents attacks without leaving evidence. Researchers struggle to study deterrence successes, unlike failures which are visible through actions like invasions or cyberattacks.

Water scarcity acts as a catalyst for conflict by combining with pressures like climate change, population growth, and industrial demands, though cooperation examples show conflict is not inevitable. The article highlights how strained water systems threaten instability but also note instances of collaborative resource management.

The article discusses how Jimmy Doolittle catalyzed a wartime industry related to octane, highlighting the impact of wartime technologies on national security. It is part of a series commemorating American defense innovations during wartime.

In 2024, Max Bergmann argued NATO needs structural reforms to strengthen a European pillar. Two years later, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated Europe cannot defend itself without U.S. support, prompting pushback from European leaders. The article examines tensions over NATO's leadership and European defense autonomy.

The article explores how mobile refrigeration transformed the availability of perishable goods in the U.S., enabling year-round access to fresh produce nationwide. It highlights this innovation as part of a broader series on wartime-born defense technologies shaping national security and society.

The Allied invasion of Sicily, Operation Husky on July 10, 1943, involved more troops on the first day than the later Normandy landings. The campaign's legacy is partly shaped by the film 'Patton,' which simplified it as a rivalry between U.S. Lt. Gen. George S. Patton and British Lt. Gen. Bernard Montgomery.

In March 2025, China’s military researchers published a concept outlining methods to rapidly capture and subdue Taipei by disrupting external support, operational systems, and cognitive cohesion. The strategy aims to break the will of Taiwan’s people to resist, though it remains a research concept rather than official doctrine.

Ukraine's use of drones across all ranges has disrupted Russian operations, logistics, and energy infrastructure. The article explores whether these strikes create lasting battlefield advantages and if they might force Russia to escalate, with analysis from experts Mike Kofman and Dara Massicot.

The article compares the failure of the Spanish Reserve Fleet in 1898 to the destruction of the Russian Baltic Fleet at the Battle of Tsushima in 1905, highlighting poor fleet readiness as a critical issue. The Russian fleet's defeat resulted in the loss or capture of nearly its entire force.

Corruption is a central topic in Ukraine’s national conversation, as highlighted by a weekly digest called The Ukraine Compass. The digest, provided by War on the Rocks, curates Ukrainian media articles offering diverse perspectives on politics, daily life, and public debates beyond battlefield-focused narratives.

The U.S. Department of Defense announced acquisition reform focused on accelerating the delivery of critical capabilities to warfighters. Key initiatives include a commercial-first policy emphasizing existing acquisition authorities, non-traditional contract vehicles, and flexible solicitations.

The article titled 'The Fedorov Dismissal: On Trust, Technology, and Turnover' is part of The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest offering Ukrainian perspectives on political debates and daily life in Ukraine. It highlights curated Ukrainian media content to provide a broader understanding beyond Western battlefield-focused coverage.

Before the twentieth century, diseases like typhoid and dysentery were major causes of death for American soldiers in wars such as the Civil War and World War I. By 1940, military medicine advancements like vaccines, sterile surgical techniques, and sulfa drugs significantly reduced disease-related fatalities.

The article highlights the United States' struggle to develop a trained workforce for economic security challenges, such as competition over supply chains, chips, and sanctions. It is part of a series by the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and War on the Rocks examining economic statecraft integration into national security.

The article discusses changes in the American civil-military relationship over the past 25 years since the establishment of the all-volunteer force by the Gates Commission. It highlights how military service has evolved and examines the impact of defense technologies on national security and society.

Robson Henry, a Pacific Island veteran who served in the U.S. Army for 26 years and completed multiple tours in the Middle East, died in January at age 66. The article discusses the broken promise by America to Pacific Island veterans.

The article examines how Russia's increased force deployment in the war with Ukraine has led to diminishing returns as Ukrainian adaptations and Western support offset expected advantages. It highlights the paradox where quantitative military advantages do not translate into proportional battlefield success.

The article introduces The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest by War on the Rocks featuring Ukrainian perspectives on security and political debates. It highlights how Ukrainian media offers a broader view of the nation's challenges beyond battlefield-focused Western coverage.

Joe Jewell transitioned from academia to lead the Pentagon’s science and technology enterprise, advocating for more researchers to join him. He emphasizes accelerating technology transfer from labs to military personnel and highlights academia’s strategic value to national security.

The White House issued two AI directives under President Donald Trump in June, including an executive order and National Security Presidential Memorandum 11, which emphasizes AI adoption across national security with four pillars. However, fiscal constraints in Fiscal Year 2026 operations and maintenance accounts risk delaying the Pentagon's AI strategy.