southeast U.S.

The first half of August in the Atlantic hurricane season is typically quiet, with historical data showing some years starting with no tropical systems. 2022 saw a completely inactive August, and similar patterns in 2019 and 2023 suggest potential for a slow start this year. Current models indicate low development odds for systems in the southeast U.S. and far east Atlantic through mid-August, with activity likely to increase later in the season.

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Record heat is expected in Miami and Fort Lauderdale on Friday with temperatures in the mid-90s and heat indices in the 100s. Rain chances will increase Friday afternoon as moisture expands across Florida, leading to scattered storms this weekend and into next week, with temperatures gradually cooling to near-normal levels.

Hotter and drier conditions are expected through the work week in Florida, with feels-like temperatures reaching 105-110°F and Heat Advisories issued for Miami-Dade and Broward. Saharan dust will reduce rain chances midweek, but a storm system approaching from the Southeast US will increase moisture and scattered showers by the weekend. Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin remains inactive for the next 7 days.

The National Hurricane Center monitors a low-development-odds weather system off the southeast U.S. coast, linked to remnants of thunderstorms and a stalled front. Development chances are 10% as of Monday, down from 20% on Sunday, due to factors like wind shear and cooler waters. The system is expected to move westward toward the Carolinas by late week under a high-pressure ridge.

Meteorologists are monitoring an elongated low-pressure area off the southeast U.S. and stalled frontal zone for potential tropical development by mid-to-late July. Computer models show a 10% chance of development, with warm subtropical Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear as factors. Any storm would likely form near land and steer toward the U.S. around the July 4th holiday weekend.

June is historically the least active month of the hurricane season, with only three Category 3+ hurricanes recorded in June since records began. Early June tropical development typically occurs near the U.S. in the western Caribbean, Gulf, and southeast Atlantic, driven by stalled fronts and the Central American Gyre. Current models show no immediate organized storm activity, but the Madden-Julian Oscillation may promote storminess by mid-June, though its influence is expected to be weaker due to a developing El Niño.