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The Nexus
Data through Jun 20, 2026
Reported vs. measured

Austin, TX

Austin crime coverage and measured incidents diverge sharply by category across a 90-day window ending June 20, 2026

Over the 90-day measurement window, Austin's incident data recorded 20,544 total offenses across all categories. The two highest-volume categories were 'other' (5,772 incidents, 28% of the total) and theft (3,443 incidents, 17%), followed by assault (2,606, 13%) and burglary (2,111, 10%). Homicide, by contrast, accounted for just 11 recorded incidents, less than 1% of the total. The most recent 30-day delta shows assault up 18%, motor vehicle theft up 15%, and fraud up 12%, while theft is down 12% and burglary down 10%; homicide shows a 30-day delta of negative 80%, though that figure reflects movement off a very small baseline and should be read cautiously. Coverage across 87 total stories (53 national, 34 local) did not mirror this distribution in either scope.

National outlets devoted 40 of 53 stories (75% of national coverage) to homicide, a category representing under 1% of measured incidents, and 11 stories (21%) to assault, which is proportionally closer to its 13% measured share but still elevated relative to the data. National coverage gave zero stories to theft, burglary, drugs, disorder, vandalism, motor vehicle theft, sex offenses, fraud, robbery, or arson, categories that together account for roughly 60% of all measured incidents. Local outlets (34 stories) produced a more distributed picture: 21 homicide stories (62% of local coverage) still over-represent that category relative to the data, but local reporters also filed on robbery (3 stories), theft (2), assault (2), and single stories on motor vehicle theft, sex offenses, drugs, and burglary. Headlines such as KXAN's 'Welfare check leads to 5th homicide in two weeks, 70-year-old found dead with obvious trauma' (June 25, 2026) and KTBC's 'Austin homicides: APD investigating 5 cases within 2 weeks' (June 24, 2026) illustrate how a short cluster of lethal-violence incidents can drive an outsized share of both local and national story counts even when the measured homicide total remains in the single digits.

The clearest divergence between national and local framing is the near-total absence of property crime in national coverage: theft at 3,443 incidents received zero national stories versus two local stories, burglary at 2,111 incidents received zero national stories versus one local story, and motor vehicle theft at 746 incidents received zero national stories versus one local story. Local coverage is a closer but still imperfect mirror: robbery received 3 local stories against only 190 measured incidents (9% of local coverage versus 1% of measured share), suggesting editorial interest in specific high-profile robbery cases, including APD public-assistance requests such as 'APD asks for help finding suspect in Walgreens robbery in central Austin' (KXAN, June 26, 2026). Disorder (1,553 incidents) and vandalism (1,102 incidents) received zero stories from either scope. The data do not support a verdict on whether Austin crime is rising or falling in aggregate; category-level deltas move in different directions simultaneously, and coverage patterns reflect editorial and proximity judgments rather than incident volume.

Recorded incidents · last 18 months
2025-012026-07
Incidents vs. national vs. local coverage

Each category’s share of measured incidents, national/cable coverage, and local coverage over the same ~90-day window.

53 national stories · 34 local stories in window

Other
Measured
5,772 · 28%

5,772 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +8% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
2 stories · 6%
Assault
Measured
2,606 · 13%

2,606 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +18% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
11 stories · 21%
Local
2 stories · 6%
Burglary
Measured
2,111 · 10%

2,111 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -10% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
1 story · 3%
Drugs
Measured
1,744 · 8%

1,744 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -1% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
1 story · 3%
Disorder
Measured
1,553 · 8%

1,553 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -5% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
none
Vandalism
Measured
1,102 · 5%

1,102 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -3% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
none
Motor vehicle theft
Measured
746 · 4%

746 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +15% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
1 story · 3%
Sex offenses
Measured
502 · 2%

502 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +11% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
1 story · 3%
Fraud
Measured
428 · 2%

428 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +12% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
none
Weapons
Measured
318 · 2%

318 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -2% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
2 stories · 4%
Local
none
Arson
Measured
18 · 0%

18 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: 0% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
none
Homicide
Measured
11 · 0%

11 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -80% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Austin PD Crime Reports

National
40 stories · 75%
Local
21 stories · 62%
What the coverage looked like
How to read this
  • Incident data runs through June 20, 2026; several cited headlines are dated June 24 to June 27, 2026, meaning those specific stories post-date the measurement window and are used only to illustrate coverage patterns, not to update incident counts.
  • The 'other' category represents 28% of measured incidents but is not disaggregated in the source data; its composition is unknown and it may contain sub-categories that would shift the distribution if broken out.
  • The homicide 30-day delta of negative 80% is derived from a baseline of approximately 11 incidents over 90 days; small absolute changes produce large percentage swings at this scale and should not be interpreted as a sustained directional trend.
  • National story count (53) exceeds local story count (34), but national stories are not a substitute for local coverage given the systematic category skew documented here; the data confirm local coverage is not sparse (local_coverage_is_sparse: false), so local outlet counts are treated as meaningful.
  • Coverage counts reflect stories indexed in The Nexus dataset and may not capture all Austin-area reporting; independent or hyperlocal outlets are likely undercounted.
  • Fraud (428 incidents) and disorder (1,553 incidents) received zero stories in either scope despite meaningful measured volume; absence of coverage should not be read as absence of activity.
  • No verdict is offered on aggregate crime direction; the reader should weigh category-level deltas and coverage gaps independently.