Oxford Economics
Coverage of Oxford Economics in the Nexus archive.
- Wall Street points to a higher open ahead of critical July inflation data
U.S. futures anticipate key July inflation data to determine if cooler interest rates are possible for the Federal Reserve, while tech stocks gained from strong demand for AI infrastructure. Geopolitically, heightened tensions between Iran and Houthi rebels over the Strait of Hormuz have impacted crude oil prices and global shipping routes.
- Shares are mixed in Europe and Asia ahead of US inflation report, while oil prices gain
Global shares were mixed Wednesday amid anticipation of key U.S. inflation data, while oil prices advanced due to persistent doubts over when crude could flow freely again following tensions with Iran and attacks by Houthi rebels. While Asian markets saw gains in some sectors, overall volatility was driven by geopolitical risks concerning major shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
- Yen Traders Brace for Intervention as Trump Backs Japan
The yen rose sharply as markets anticipated potential intervention following confirmed coordinated operations between Japan and the US. Oxford Economics' Louise Loo provided insights on the developments.
- The labor market could become so backward that the economy will have to shed jobs to keep unemployment steady
President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and aging baby boomer retirements are reshaping the labor market, causing the breakeven rate for job growth to decline. Payrolls could stagnate or shrink while unemployment remains steady, with Oxford Economics forecasting the breakeven rate to reach zero by next year and turn negative by 2028. Healthcare and other industries may sustain modest job growth despite a shrinking labor force.
- Trump’s latest import taxes could set a precedent for a ‘broad tariff generator’ on anything a president wants to target, expert warns
President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, replacing earlier tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. Experts warn this could establish a precedent for future presidents to impose tariffs broadly for any reason, bypassing legal challenges.
- The overlooked way the Iran war is making groceries, Amazon packages and new homes more expensive
The Iran conflict is driving up diesel prices, increasing transportation costs for goods and services like groceries, Amazon deliveries, and home construction. Rising diesel costs could exacerbate inflation and strain household budgets, with potential political implications for the 2026 midterms.
- Money talks—as the Iran war continues, options for the Strait of Hormuz are coalescing around one solution – tolls
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil and LNG shipping route, faces severe disruption due to escalating U.S.-Iran military clashes, with Iranian attacks on vessels and U.S. airstrikes intensifying since July. Maritime organizations report heightened threats, crew reluctance to sail through the strait, and proposals for toll systems to ensure trade continuity amid ongoing conflict.
- Shipping transits slow to a trickle as Strait of Hormuz faces “worst-case scenario”
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a three-week low due to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, with transits dropping 66.2% week-over-week. Iranian attacks on ships and a U.S. blockade on Iran-linked shipping have caused vessels to avoid the strait, described as a 'worst-case scenario' by maritime experts. The Houthi group further escalated risks by imposing a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia.
- The host city is doing all of the hosting, none of the headlining
The FIFA World Cup quarterfinal between Norway and England is being hosted in Miami Gardens, a suburban city northeast of downtown Miami, despite promotional efforts focusing on Miami. Miami Gardens' stadium, originally built in 1987 for the Miami Dolphins, has hosted five matches and will host a third-place game, with local leaders hoping for economic and visibility benefits.
- Why Brazil, Mexico and Colombia Top a New Fiscal Risk Warning
Oxford Economics identifies Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia as economies requiring significant fiscal adjustment due to debt sustainability risks. The study ranks 46 economies based on the debt-stabilising primary balance, placing Mexico and Colombia in a group needing sustained large surpluses to address prolonged fiscal attrition.
- Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting sees rates hold steady and makes outright promise to deliver price stability—but don’t expect many details on when
Kevin Warsh confirmed the Federal Reserve will hold the base rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during his first meeting as chairman. He emphasized a commitment to price stability amid inflation concerns and political pressures, while the June FOMC meeting was closely watched for signs of Fed independence amid prior tensions between the White House and former Chair Jerome Powell.
- Filling up your car won’t feel normal until next summer, S&P says
The U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing long-term oil supply concerns, but energy analysts predict physical crude markets will remain tight until summer 2027 due to infrastructure repairs and shipping risks. S&P Global estimates supply losses will exceed 1.5 billion barrels by June, with full production normalization delayed.
- Carolina Gold: Why Americans are flooding red states and fleeing blue strongholds
The Carolinas are experiencing a population boom due to high-paying job opportunities and relative affordability, with North Carolina seeing the highest net domestic migration in 2023 and South Carolina being the fastest-growing state by percentage. The region's diverse employment landscape and lower living costs have created a powerful draw for those living in more expensive coastal hubs. This growth comes as several traditionally blue states struggle to return to pre-pandemic population levels.