War on the Rocks

According to strategic goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, Russia’s military lost its war against Ukraine. Despite this, the armed forces continue large-scale combat operations, draining national assets and resources. The article notes that while Putin calls major shots, it is Russia's senior military elite that makes daily operational decisions affecting warfighting outcomes.

The article is an interview with Brandon Tseng, co-founder and president of Shield AI, discussing the company's core belief that the AI pilot is more crucial than the airframe. Tseng was asked about his decade experience building autonomy for the Pentagon. His company develops Hivemind autonomy software, V-BAT and X-BAT aircraft, and Aechelon synthetic reality simulation technologies.

China has upgraded its military capabilities by modifying ferries for amphibious armored vehicles, expanding missile forces, and hardening air bases to deter U.S. intervention. However, some analyses contradict these facts, arguing that concerns about China's military are overstated and that an invasion of Taiwan remains out of reach for the People’s Liberation Army.

Japan claims a massive exclusive economic zone based on Okinotori, an uninhabited feature consisting of rocks less than 10 square meters at high tide. Japan protested Sino-Russian live-fire drills held within this claimed zone. The protest cited safety risks but also challenged Beijing's claim that Okinotori is merely a rock.

Captain Chirag made comments about worry while operating a commercial cargo vessel in the Red Sea following the October 7, 2023 attacks in the Middle East. These sentiments could relate to military experiences, such as those involving crew members of USS Carney or sailors assigned to Carrier Strike Group Three who are engaging Houthi threats.

Military analysts are studying how war's material nature is changing in Ukraine, noting that technologies like unmanned systems and on-board AI are transforming conflict tactics. These tools have captured Russian infantry units and battered ships, enabling autonomous strikes deep into enemy areas. This technological shift democratizes military capability, allowing a country to resist an invader much larger than itself.

The People’s Liberation Army Daily consistently asserts that while AI can enhance command capabilities by processing sensor data and drafting options, ultimate authority and responsibility must remain with human commanders. The official newspaper of China’s Central Military Commission maintains that AI cannot resolve the allocation of command authority because only a human commander holds this capacity.

The discussion addresses how the U.S. military faces contested logistics in a Pacific war, questioning access to vital supplies like munitions, food, water, and energy. Experts included David Tuttle, Paul Lwin, and Tom Garvey debate sustaining dispersed forces facing enemy fire, focusing on topics such as autonomy versus automation, predictive resupply methods, and transferable lessons from Ukraine.

The Iran war and the Ukraine war are starting to show a similar political logic after failures to achieve quick results. Although operationally different, both conflicts saw a larger power fail to produce a decisive outcome using military force. Consequently, targeted states adapted while outside supporters helped keep both conflicts ongoing.

In early 1963, the United States and the Soviet Union differed on a comprehensive nuclear test ban, with Nikita Khrushchev proposing three annual inspections while Washington asked for seven. The difference was significant because seismology could not always distinguish an underground test from an earthquake. Ultimately, the number chosen represented a political judgment about how much residual uncertainty its government should accept.

Operation Epic Fury demonstrated that AI is central to American warfighting, with Central Command using Claude through Palantir’s Maven Smart System platform to generate and prioritize roughly 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours. This pace exceeded the opening phase of the 2003 Iraq invasion, reaching 13,000 total strikes over 38 days. The article raises concern about whether the department can properly evaluate deployed AI technology.

On June 26, 2026, the Civil Police of Rio de Janeiro raided a clandestine workshop in Rio das Pedras. Investigators discovered that the group was using a seized 3D printer to produce pistol frames and structural rifle parts from polymer, which were subsequently completed with metal components. The operation’s main target was described by police as an international arms and ammunition trafficker.

The War Department sought to increase domestic production of standardized muskets after supplying the U.S. Army during the War of 1812. From this industrial project arose Thomas Blanchard's copying lathe, which resulted from a collaboration between public and private interests. This invention enabled complex, irregular three-dimensional wood forms to be manufactured at scale, revolutionizing an formerly artisanal task.

The article notes that the United States will soon face two historical milestones: the 25-year anniversary of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and the five-year anniversary of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. While the 9/11 anniversary is expected to receive some remembrance, the U.S. government is likely to ignore the milestone concerning the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Water and energy infrastructure has become a main deterrence lever for Iran against the United States. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi warned Gulf states that striking critical infrastructure would occur if U.S. military strikes continued. Operational history, including debris hitting the Doha West facility and reported attacks on Qeshm Island desalination facilities, confirms this threat.

Electronic components, including memory chips known as DRAM, are currently in scarce supply with prices having surged significantly. Due to this scarcity, major companies such as Apple, Dell, and HP are evaluating memory from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). This situation has heightened geopolitical concerns, as the Pentagon designated CXMT as a Chinese military company.

Since 1945, political decisions have reportedly reduced Britain’s ability to maintain a globally relevant Royal Navy fleet. These efforts include the failed Suez expedition in 1956, the retreat from “East of Suez” in 1966, and subsequent reviews such as the Nott Review (1981), the Strategic Defence Review (1998), and the 2010 review.

The article details how nuclear power has propelled American defense services for over 70 years, supporting assets like attack submarines and ballistic missiles. This piece is part of a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime, running to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary.

When war changes, educational institutions must change their approach. Historically, reforms were driven by figures like Gerhard von Scharnhorst following Napoleonic warfare, and James Carson Breckinridge advocated for new paradigms influenced by John Dewey’s ideas in 1929. War is currently changing again due to the promise of the third offset, necessitating further educational shifts.

Historically, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, the U.S. government was the primary patron of American science, funding nearly two-thirds of research and development, largely for defense. While federal dollars previously drove technological advancement, that arrangement has now inverted. Today, industry funds roughly three-quarters of U.S. research and development, with Washington's share being less than a fifth.